Product: 
Months since launch: 
Current metrics: 

Diagnose your PMF status:

1. The 40% rule (most reliable indicator)
   - % of customers who'd be very disappointed without you?
   - If <40%: No PMF yet
   - If 40-50%: Getting close
   - If >50%: PMF achieved
   
   How to measure:
   - Simple survey: "How would you feel if couldn't use this?"
   - Answer options: Very disappointed / somewhat disappointed / doesn't matter
   - Look at % "very disappointed"

2. Retention signals
   - Day 1 retention: Do they come back?
   - Day 30 retention: Are they still using?
   - Day 90 retention: Is this sticky?
   
   Benchmarks:
   - <20% D30: You don't have PMF
   - 20-40% D30: Questionable PMF
   - >40% D30: Likely PMF
   - >70% D90: Definitely PMF

3. Growth momentum
   - Are users growing week-over-week?
   - How much CAC are you spending?
   - Are users organically referring?
   - Is word-of-mouth growth? (viral coefficient >1)
   
   With PMF: organic growth compounds
   Without PMF: growth needs constant spending

4. Usage patterns
   - How frequently do users come back?
   - Are power users emerging? (10% using 50% of features)
   - Are they using in ways you predicted?
   - Are they asking for specific features?
   
   Signs of PMF: Users want more, not less

5. Qualitative signals (the feels)
   - Customers calling you (not other way around)?
   - Customers defending you to skeptics?
   - Referrals happening without asking?
   - Customers willing to pay 2x price? (would indicate they get value)

6. The honest assessment
   True/False questions:
   - [ ] Customers would be genuinely sad if we disappeared
   - [ ] We've hit our retention targets
   - [ ] Growth is accelerating (not constant marketing spend)
   - [ ] Users are ≥50% organic (referral/word-of-mouth)
   - [ ] We understand exactly who wins and why
   - [ ] We could raise capital easily based on traction
   
   If <4 true: No PMF yet
   If 4 true: Close
   If 5+ true: PMF likely achieved

7. If NOT at PMF: Diagnosis
   - Is product problem? (users don't love it)
   - Is market problem? (wrong customer)
   - Is messaging problem? (right product, wrong people)
   - Is execution problem? (can't get in front of right people)
   
   Which is YOUR bottleneck?

8. Next moves
   If at PMF:
   - Focus on scale (growth is primary)
   - Optimize unit economics
   - Consider fundraising
   
   If not at PMF:
   - Do NOT scale (waste money)
   - Double down on retention (product-market fit)
   - Talk to customers obsessively
   - Maybe pivot if needed

Examples

Input

{
  "product": "AI code review tool for enterprise teams",
  "launchAge": "8 months",
  "metrics": "2000 MAU, 18% D30 retention, 25% organic growth, $2k CAC, 85% churn month 1"
}

Output

PMF diagnostic with 40% rule assessment, retention analysis, growth momentum evaluation, usage patterns, qualitative signals, honest assessment checklist, diagnosis of bottleneck, and recommended next moves.

Sources

https://www.ycombinator.com/library/6F-how-to-know-if-you-have-product-market-fit

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