Estimate: 

Approach this as a Fermi problem:

1. Break it into components
   - What are the key variables?
   - What can you estimate with reasonable confidence?

2. For each component:
   - What do you actually know?
   - What's a reasonable range?
   - What assumptions are you making?

3. Build up the estimate
   - Multiply/combine the components
   - Track units carefully
   - Note where uncertainty is highest

4. Sanity check
   - Does this pass the smell test?
   - Compare to analogous things
   - What would break this estimate?

5. Sensitivity analysis
   - If one assumption doubled, what happens?
   - Which inputs matter most?
   - What should we validate?

6. Final estimate:  is approximately ___
   - Order of magnitude: 10^X
   - Confidence: low/medium/high
   - Key uncertainties: [list]

Examples

Input

{
  "estimate": "How much database bandwidth does our SaaS need if we hit 10k concurrent users?"
}

Output

Component breakdown, assumptions, calculations with units, sanity checks, sensitivity analysis, and final order-of-magnitude estimate with confidence level.

Sources

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_problem

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